Measuring the market

In the mountains, one quickly learns to distrust forecasts that are too sure of themselves. The morning sky promises a radiant day, and the storm breaks at three in the afternoon on the ridge. Seasoned guides consult the forecasts, then look up at the sky, watch the wind, the flight of the choughs and the shape of the clouds. They cross-check their sources and keep a margin.

The RWA market calls for the same caution. Since 2022, the large consultancies and investment banks have published dizzying forecasts, running to tens of trillions of dollars. Data platforms display real-time counters whose totals sometimes diverge by several billion. Press releases announce records every week. One has to learn to read them.

Why measuring is difficult

Measuring the size of a tokenised asset market seems simple. It would be enough to add up the value of all tokens in circulation. In practice, each term of this sum raises a question of method.